Prediction risk disclosure

For OmbraProp prediction market practice and simulated prediction evaluations. Version 2026-10-25.p3 (pre-launch). Last updated: 25 October 2026.

Please read this before you practise or buy a prediction evaluation. It forms part of the prediction evaluation terms.

1. Everything is simulated

Free practice accounts, evaluations and funded accounts are all simulated. Prices come from Polymarket's public order books, but no order, position or contract is ever placed with Polymarket or any other venue. You do not trade real money, and we never give you money to trade.

Simulated fills are not real fills. In a real market an order could fill at a worse price, fill partly or not fill at all, especially in thin markets or when news breaks. Prices we receive can be delayed or wrong. Results on a simulated account may not be repeatable anywhere else.

2. Past simulated results do not predict future results

Any result you see, in practice, in an evaluation or shared by anyone else, is hypothetical. Past simulated results do not predict future results, simulated or real.

3. No promise of profit or income

Nothing OmbraProp says promises profit, income or a payout. We make no claims about pass rates or payout rates. Do not treat prediction evaluations as a way to earn a living.

4. You should expect to lose the fee

An evaluation fee is a fee for a service, not a stake or a deposit. It is not returned when you pass or fail, except under the refund terms. Plan on losing it, and only spend what you can afford to lose. Buying evaluation after evaluation to chase a pass adds up quickly: set a limit before you start.

A simulation priced on real-world events can feel like betting. If it stops feeling like practice, stop. Our responsible trading page lists cooling-off and self-exclusion options and free help.

5. Crypto payment risks

  • Fees are paid in crypto, by bank transfer or with PayPal. Crypto payments cannot be reversed, and a payment sent to the wrong address or network may be lost.
  • Refunds are the US dollar value you paid, minus the network fee for sending the refund, so you may receive a different number of coins from what you sent.

6. How payouts work, and their limits

  • Payouts are performance rewards paid from OmbraProp's own money. They are not winnings, wages or a return on an investment.
  • You are paid only when your funded account meets every condition in the rules and terms, including the identity check. Payouts are subject to per-request and monthly limits, per person and firm-wide, that are set in advance and shown in your dashboard before you request; if an approved amount is above a limit, the rest is paid in the next cycle, not refused. A person reviews every payout request before it is paid. The payouts page explains the process and lists every payout made.
  • Trades can be voided if they were placed on a known outcome or filled against stale or wrong data, which can reduce or remove profit.
  • Tax on payouts is your responsibility.

7. Not regulated, not advice

OmbraProp is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority or the Gambling Commission. Fees and payouts are not protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. We do not give investment, betting, financial, tax or legal advice and do not recommend any trade or outcome.

8. Real prediction markets are high risk

Real prediction markets, where they are legal, can lose you everything you put in. Doing well in a simulation does not mean you will make money with real money.

9. Service risks

OmbraProp is a small, new business. It depends on Polymarket's public data, NOWPayments and an identity check provider, any of which can fail or stop working with us. Polymarket may limit or block access to its data, which could pause the service.

10. Help

Free, confidential help: GamCare (0808 8020 133, gamcare.org.uk) and, for money worries, MoneyHelper (moneyhelper.org.uk).

Contact: prop@ombratrading.com. OmbraProp is a service of Ombra Trading Ltd, a company registered in England and Wales, company number 17531482, registered office 71-75 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9JQ.